Given that the Craig Hansen rumblings have begun, and that people aren't ready to give Timlin the keys to the Porsche yet, I'm a bit upset about a dumb stat that invariably gets thrown around when setup men are elevated to closer status:
Timlin has five blown saves in only seven chances this year! That's only a 28% success rate!
That statistic is an undeniable crock of shit, and has been exposed as such in the past by The Hardball Times' Aaron Gleeman, using 8th-inning juggernaut Arthur Rhodes as the example. The basic point is that any time you blow a lead, no matter what inning it is, it's a blown save... you can blow a save in the 8th, the 7th, the 4th, even the bottom of the 1st if the circumstances arise. This means that any reliever who isn't the closer will have a horrendous conversion percentage, simply because he never gets any convertable save chances.
Timlin's case is no different... of the five blown saves, three were blown in the 7th and two in the 8th... all situations in which he was never intended to pitch the 9th. And yet, there he is with that 2-for-7 stigma. He's had dozens of chances to blow a save, but only a handful of chances (two, in fact) to actually convert one. As Gleeman did with Rhodes, we can add Timlin's 23 holds to the equation, which shows us that Timlin has held onto the Sox' lead in 25 of 30 appearances. That's quite acceptable, particularly for a 39-year old fastball pitcher who has been overworked since his arrival in 2003. Factor in Timlin's closing experience (31 saves in 1996 for Toronto, another 27 for Baltimore in 1999) and the fact that he is enjoying arguably his best season as a setup man (1.73 ERA), and you will see there's far more evidence to suggest he'll be just fine.
That's not to say Hansen should be in Portland at this time next week. He shouldn't. But don't have him close. With a couple notable exceptions, like Huston Street of the A's, closers develop better when groomed elsewhere on the pitching staff. Francisco Rodriguez... Brad Lidge... Eric Gagne... Billy Wagner... Joe Nathan... Mariano Rivera... none of them were closers as rookies. K-Rod, Mo and Lidge dominated from day one, but they weren't thrust into the closer role until they'd established themselves. Even Huston Street wasn't elevated until midseason. So absolutely get Hansen up to Boston as soon as possible, but when you do, Timlin is a far more palatable choice to hold down the fort.
Timlin has five blown saves in only seven chances this year! That's only a 28% success rate!
That statistic is an undeniable crock of shit, and has been exposed as such in the past by The Hardball Times' Aaron Gleeman, using 8th-inning juggernaut Arthur Rhodes as the example. The basic point is that any time you blow a lead, no matter what inning it is, it's a blown save... you can blow a save in the 8th, the 7th, the 4th, even the bottom of the 1st if the circumstances arise. This means that any reliever who isn't the closer will have a horrendous conversion percentage, simply because he never gets any convertable save chances.
Timlin's case is no different... of the five blown saves, three were blown in the 7th and two in the 8th... all situations in which he was never intended to pitch the 9th. And yet, there he is with that 2-for-7 stigma. He's had dozens of chances to blow a save, but only a handful of chances (two, in fact) to actually convert one. As Gleeman did with Rhodes, we can add Timlin's 23 holds to the equation, which shows us that Timlin has held onto the Sox' lead in 25 of 30 appearances. That's quite acceptable, particularly for a 39-year old fastball pitcher who has been overworked since his arrival in 2003. Factor in Timlin's closing experience (31 saves in 1996 for Toronto, another 27 for Baltimore in 1999) and the fact that he is enjoying arguably his best season as a setup man (1.73 ERA), and you will see there's far more evidence to suggest he'll be just fine.
That's not to say Hansen should be in Portland at this time next week. He shouldn't. But don't have him close. With a couple notable exceptions, like Huston Street of the A's, closers develop better when groomed elsewhere on the pitching staff. Francisco Rodriguez... Brad Lidge... Eric Gagne... Billy Wagner... Joe Nathan... Mariano Rivera... none of them were closers as rookies. K-Rod, Mo and Lidge dominated from day one, but they weren't thrust into the closer role until they'd established themselves. Even Huston Street wasn't elevated until midseason. So absolutely get Hansen up to Boston as soon as possible, but when you do, Timlin is a far more palatable choice to hold down the fort.
posted by Jeff at
11:39 AM
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