Postgame Spread: State of the rivalry

My very preliminary stats analysis of the state of the Yankees/Sox.
I assumed Jeff's best-case scenario lineup, and assumed that Youk would play 3B (cause I don't want to project Marte's stats), and that Ortiz would DH, and Lowell would play 1B.
Not perfect, I know, and makes some assumptions (I expect slightly better #s from Giambi and Manny next year, as they both basically took the first month of the season off last year).
So without further ado, here it is:

	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Damon	0.316	0.366	0.439	0.805
Jeter	0.309	0.389	0.450	0.839
Dora	0.321	0.421	0.610	1.031
Giambi	0.271	0.440	0.535	0.975
Sheffield	0.279	0.379	0.512	0.891
Matsui	0.305	0.367	0.496	0.863
Posada	0.262	0.352	0.430	0.782
Williams	0.249	0.321	0.367	0.688
Cano	0.297	0.320	0.458	0.778
Team Average	0.290	0.373	0.477	0.850
	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lugo	0.295	0.362	0.403	0.765
Loretta	0.280	0.360	0.347	0.707
Papi	0.300	0.397	0.604	1.001
Man-Ram	0.292	0.388	0.594	0.982
Tricky Trot	0.278	0.357	0.446	0.803
Coco Crisp	0.300	0.345	0.465	0.810
Tek	0.281	0.366	0.489	0.855
God-You-Suck (Lowell)	0.236	0.298	0.360	0.658
Youk	0.278	0.400	0.405	0.805
Team Average	0.282	0.364	0.457	0.821
1B
Giambi	0.271	0.440	0.535	0.975
God-You-Suck (Lowell)	0.236	0.298	0.360	0.658
HUGE Advantage:	Yankees

2B
Cano	0.297	0.320	0.458	0.778
Loretta	0.280	0.360	0.347	0.707
Advantage:	Yankees

SS
Jeter	0.309	0.389	0.450	0.839
Lugo	0.295	0.362	0.403	0.765
Advantage:	Yankees

3B
Dora	0.321	0.421	0.610	1.031
Youk	0.278	0.400	0.405	0.805
Big Advantage:	Yankees

LF
Matsui	0.305	0.367	0.496	0.863
Man-Ram	0.292	0.388	0.594	0.982
Advantage:	Sox

CF
Damon	0.316	0.366	0.439	0.805
Coco Crisp	0.300	0.345	0.465	0.810
Advantage:	Draw/maybe sox, which is surprising

RF
Sheffield	0.279	0.379	0.512	0.891
Tricky Trot	0.278	0.357	0.446	0.803
Advantage:	Yankees

C
Posada	0.262	0.352	0.430	0.782
Tek	0.281	0.366	0.489	0.855
Advantage:	Sox

DH
Williams	0.249	0.321	0.367	0.688
Papi	0.300	0.397	0.604	1.001
HUGE Advantage:	Sox

My primary reactions are as follows:

1) The Yankees need a DH, and I'd be shocked if they didn't pick one up by July.

2) If Posada's decline continues apace, catcher will be a problem position for them this year.

3) Coco Crisp is pretty durn good. His #s match Damon's, and at a slightly discounted rate. Dunno about his defensive rep. or how he'd handle the transition to center field. If he's ready to make the move, I'm pretty shocked that the Yankees weren't all over his johnson in the first place.

4) (channelling the song from the Waterboy) Lo-well Sucks! He really really sucks! Lo-well sucks!

Overall, I still think the Yankees have the edge offensively, but it's a much slimmer one than i thought. And if Boston doesn't land Lugo and a center-ready Coco, the gap will get wider.

Pitching analysis anyone? I like the Dotel signing, by the way, even if he ends up not contributing until 2007.

2 Comments:

Yeah, Dotel was definitely worth a shot, even if it doesn't work out at all.

I really think it's just as likely that Lowell improves significantly over last year as continues at the same level (let alone declines). You can see my comment in Jeff's last thread if you care to.

By Jesse, at 1:09 PM
The Yankees have more offensive depth. But they also have more weak links. Posada and Bernie killed them last year, and aren't likely to improve on their 2005 numbers. Cano wasn't great, but I like his bat... I think he'll get better. Posada might bounce back, maybe, but certain catchers flame out when they catch too much, and Posada is hitting like a guy who's done too much catching. Bernie, meanwhile, is definitely cooked.

Being generous to my boy Robinson, if they find SOMEONE to DH and keep Bernie on the bench, you can say the Yankees will have a better lineup. Posada and Lowell would be analogously rotten, Cano and Lugo would be question marks, and the DH at this point would probably line up w/ Youkilis or Marte.

Here's a thought though... the Yanks sign Preston Wilson to play right, and switch him at DH with Sheffield? Has Sheff expressed any willingness to do that?

By Jeff, at 2:24 PM