Postgame Spread
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Friday, March 17, 2006

NCAA Prediction Failures    

Through 20 games, the traps I failed to predict this year:

1) Arizona's too talented to lose to a gimmicky defense-only team like Wisconsin.

2) I picked Florida for a Final Four in 2002 and they got smoked by a 12-seed on day two.  Never trusted them since.  Whoops.

3) Syracuse was ridiculously lucky to win the Big East, relying 100% on McNamara, and as such is ranked way high as a 5.  A&M is too good to be a 12 seed.  How much more should I have expected?  Should've seen it coming.

4) Nevada is a textbook case of Reverse Bracket Buster Syndrome, from which Gonzaga has suffered ever since their entry into the Top 25 a few years back.  A team busts up enough brackets, you figure they're for real, and they can't live up to the respect they've been afforded.

This is only so far.  I won't second-guess my Utah State and Marquette failures, because there's no lesson to learn there.  Just random-ass picks (emphasis on "ass") that didn't work out.

(2:45 Edit: Syracuse isn't the only overachieving conference champion that I mistakenly put faith in. Iowa just bit the dust. First Elite 8 school to die on me this year. Damn. But they did it in comeback fashion, and on a game-winning three when two would have tied. So I give them 100% propers for that one. Wish I'd actually seen it. Stupid job!)

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