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Thursday, December 06, 2007

Drunken Sailors, 2007    

So... what does everyone think of the Guillen signing?

Here's what I think:


13M a year for this guy seems like utter madness to me, and that's before the Mitchell report weighs in with any future suspensions. Then again, I am on record as blasting the Royals for the Meche signing last year, and that turned out pretty durn well.

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4 Comments:

  • I'll see your Jose Guillen 3/36, and raise you Andruw Jones for 2/36.2, $15M of which is up front. My opinion is said best with the magic of song.

    But yeah, 3/36 is kind of a stretch. It's not far from market value for that production, but I'd want more consistent consistency for that kind of money. Or, you know, a better player. This is the same deal Mike Lowell got from the Sox; who'd you rather have?

    I defended the Meche contract based on sending a message; but with the message already sent, what's the point of this?

    By Blogger Jeff, at 11:36 AM  

  • Lowell took a discount, Jeff, so that's not a fair comparison. But yeah, this is excessive, unless maybe we really buy that salaries are increasing so quickly that all these bad contracts will look OK sooner rather than later. The steroids thing is interesting. I think the Royals probably knew; the Mariners certainly did (otherwise I hope to god they have offered him arbitration).

    That said, Guillen could be worth this. He can't be a bargain at that price, but if he essentially repeats 2007 that'll be a pretty fair value. And I don't see any real reason to view most of his flop years as related to fallout from one bad injury. At least, unlike Meche, he actually has very good entire seasons under his belt (barring this last year for Meche, which was after the contract he signed). Besides injuries, and maybe steroid-related problems, I'd say the biggest reason he's not going to be able to live up to contract is that he's a pretty terrible defender.

    As for the Meche signing, we'll see. One year does not a good contract make, though it certainly indicates that his talent level was worth gambling a bit on (something I had stopped believing when he was a Mariner).

    By Blogger Jesse, at 11:30 AM  

  • On further review, I retract my objections. I had no idea Guillen dropped 99 RBIs and broke 20 HRs. I thought 2007 had been more of a down year for him, but apparently it hasn't.

    This deal is only slightly above his value. I'm not convinced it's a good investment for KC, but it's not a bad place to start. And the contract isn't so awful that he can't be traded if they need to get out from under it later.

    So I stand corrected. Jesse will not be charged with a timeout.

    But I stand by my Lowell comparison. Dollars are dollars! I'm just sayinggggggg...

    By Blogger Jeff, at 9:59 PM  

  • I'm not surprised people are confused about Guillen; he had a weird season. There were points when he was absolutely carrying our offense and other points where he looked totally lost. I don't know what to expect from him, except that when he's been healthy he's mostly been quite good (if not exactly awesome). How steroids figure into that, I have no idea, though, so we'll just see I guess. It's a brave new world we're living in.

    By Blogger Jesse, at 1:22 AM  

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