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Tuesday, July 26, 2005

Another Textbook Example    

Returning to the Palmeiro/HOF discussion from a little while back...

Jeff Bagwell is contemplating retirement.  There's a guy from the modern era who clearly fits into the Jim Rice Wing of Cooperstown.  He was one of the premier power hitters in the NL for most of his career, and yet he's only got 449 home runs in 14 seasons and change.  Like Ken Griffey Jr., his best season would have been 1994, had it reached completion... he was at .368/39/144 when the strike hit (with a projectile-eyeball-inducing 1201 OPS).

Here's the tie-in: I would take Jeff Bagwell over Rafael Palmeiro.  Now, we're talking about two guys whose career primes overlapped, and who play the exact same position... this isn't like picking between Griffey and Raffy.  These two guys should line up pretty nicely. Indeed, according to ESPN.com, Bagwell's average 162-game season is significantly better than Palmeiro's in runs scored, walks, steals, AVG, SLG, and OPS, while Palmeiro's is better in... strikeouts, which is meaningless given that Palmeiro made more outs per season than did Bagwell.  This is convincing evidence that the superior player will not make it to the Hall of Fame.  Please tell me why this is a good way to operate a Hall of Fame.

I was OK with Raffy getting in, with reservations, until looking at the stats.  Now I'm downright horrified.  Bags is 51 HR away from having a strong case, and he may not even play again.  What's worse is that Bags will retire as an Astro instead of moving to a DH team, thus giving up the chance to chase milestones like Raffy.  It will probably cost him a shot at the Hall.  Say it with me... that ain't right!

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