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Thursday, November 16, 2006

How much to offer Matsuzaka?    

Given the outlay, how much would you be willing to pay for Matsuzaka at this point? Boras of course has said that he wants Roy Oswalt money (5 years, $73 million), but everyone is saying that it's the Red Sox who will want the longer deal and Boras who will be pushing for the shorter deal. So how many years do you try for? How much are you willing to pay per year?

Of course, we don't know how much Matsuzaka will take, so this is pretty academic, but I think it's kind of fun. So, assuming that Oswalt is the bench mark and that Boras/Matsuzaka actually want less years, not more, can you sell 4 years and $52 million? Or do they mean they want the full $14.6 mil but fewer years?

I think that maximizing the number of years you get for your new outlay is all well and good, but do you really want a guy like Matsuzaka, with all the pitches he's pitched, on your payroll for a guaranteed 5th year? I don't think you do, but then you know Boras will take him to free agency at the end of his contract, so 3 years is a little scary. I think 4 is the magic number there, and the Red Sox should stick to their guns.

I say 4 years and $52 is the absolute most I would offer. If he goes back to Japan, you just have to live with that. I think there's too much risk to invest too much more. Of course, then you have to ask yourself, "What's an extra million dollars per year to a team like the Red Sox?" On the other hand, who really turns down $13 mil a year to play for a potential World Series team though, when their other option is to return to a team they don't want to play for for less money? I think the Red Sox have more leverage in this than people are currently giving them credit for, so I wouldn't be that surprised for him to end up with less. But it's a scary proposition any way you slice it. Days like this I'm glad I'm not a baseball manager.

How would you guys proceed if you were in charge of these negotiations from here on out?

3 Comments:

  • Nice piece:

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/three-ringed-circus/

    By Blogger Jesse, at 9:12 AM  

  • This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    By Blogger chas, at 11:19 AM  

  • Another interesting take here.

    By Blogger chas, at 11:20 AM  

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