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Monday, December 04, 2006

Signings    

The Mariners are close to adding Jose Guillen to a reasonable deal. $5 million guaranteed may seem a lot like a guy who may not really ever come back from his injury, but it's just one year. And with the incentives and the option for 2008, we get a pretty good deal if he comes back well. Looks like the Mariners will trade Broussard, leaving Snelling/Ibanez/Guillen to man LF/RF/DH somehow, with varying reports about who will man which position. Depending on Guillen's arm health, the ideal defensive configuration would be to make sure Ibanez is the DH, but I'll hope for a rotation of some kind. Both Snelling and Guillen could probably use to be rested from time to time anyway.

John Thomson apparently is also in the wings for cheap, which sounds pretty nice, if not a solution. So far all pretty low risk (at least in terms of commitment and/or talent out the door). Apparently we're trying to trade for Jason Jennings, Reed is likely headed to the Marlins for some arm or another, and we're still the most likely destination for Schmidt (although the Mariners have in the past ruled out any 5-year deal for a pitcher, which could leave the Dodgers room to snag him). Put me down for either Schmidt or Jennings but not both, if I were to have my way. Schmidt helps us contend next year but will almost certainly hurt us down the road, whereas Jennings helps us tread water so we can really make a (hopefully sustained) splash in 2008. But I don't want to see talent go out the door for Jennings AND a big financial commitment for Schmidt. That seems like mortgaging the future too much for the present.

Actually I'm terrified of Schmidt in 4 years (let alone 5), so I guess I'd prefer Jennings, but I'm afraid we'll trade Soriano to get him. That might be the right decision, but it doesn't mean I like it. The Mariners have enough in-house candidates for a 5th spot that someone should be able to hold that down OK. I think you have to hope that by the time it matters Morrow or Feierabend (or Soriano for chrissakes) will be good enough to handle one of those jobs, and well. But if we could sign Schmidt, extend Ichiro, and call that an offseason, I wouldn't be too upset. There would be financial issues down the road, but by then Sexson will be off the books at least, so that's something. And it keeps the talent in place...clearly, I'm waffling a lot here.

I'm seeing an allright team start to shape up, and we're not going a spending spree, thank god. But I'm not that optimistic either. We'll just have to see how it goes I guess. If we trade Soriano this offseason, Jennings or whoever else better be worth it. I'll just be glad when this offseason is over and I can start just hoping the decisions made end up working out. All this worrying about what might happen is tough on me.

4 Comments:

  • Note: Not that Asdrubral Cabrera or Shin-Soo Choo are all that great, but those trades are starting to look a little silly. I was excited about Benuardo, but we should have known (and Bavasi damn sure should have known) that we weren't really contenders. If we'd been sellers instead, we could have sent Sexson to SF before they snagged Hillenbrand, sold high on Meche before he predictably swooned, and still had a better stocked farm system to work some trades this winter.

    Hypothesis, if we'd won just 2-3 less games over the course of the first half, we would have

    1) Fired Hargrove

    2) Traded Sexson and Meche

    3) Bavasi would have been fired by now, or be about to be fired.

    4) I would actually be more miserable about the state of the team, but

    5) The Mariners would be better from 2007 on.

    The only real negative I see is that Ichiro might not be playing CF. That would be too bad.

    Hypothesis 2:

    If we had been smart enough to not sign Washburn, and (more importantly) not sign Carl Everett, we wouldn't be in this mess anyway.

    By Blogger Jesse, at 11:05 AM  

  • I actually really like the Guillen signing. $5 million for one year isn't much of a gamble for a guy who, if healthy, would turn out .300/25/90 and play good OF defense at either corner. Granted, that's a best-case scenario, but that's an awfully terrifying best-case scenario. Sexson, Beltre, Guillen, Ibanez, Ichiro... with Johjima/Lopez/Betancourt as the glue, and Adam Jones as the guy who doesn't need to hit (but might anyway)... yikes. Not a particularly left-handed lineup, but better to be overly right-handed than overly left-handed.

    By Blogger Jeff, at 11:28 AM  

  • I agree the Guillen signing was savvy, even if it doesn't work out. I'm worried it's one part of a not-that-smart strategy, but I like it individually quite a bit.

    The teams problems though are still all pitching. We'll see.

    By Blogger Jesse, at 12:01 PM  

  • Yeah, clearly. The pitching woes go w/o saying.

    I'd be really excited about Schmidt. Not that he's unbeatable, or that Year Four won't be gruesome, but I still like the move. Even a disappointing Schmidt should be good enough to eat up innings, and at best can be a nifty Steward to the throne, until King Felix is ready to ascend.

    Also, I think if you guys hadn't signed Washburn you'd have no reason to be concerned about Year Four. That you guys would eat both Washburn AND Schmidt in their autumn years is the problem, not that either contract would be that crippling taken on its own.

    By Blogger Jeff, at 2:28 PM  

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