Postgame Spread
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Monday, April 16, 2007

The Mariners actually have a chance    

Maybe.

OK, it's still early, but Oakland looks like a train-wreck in the making, Texas still sucks, and it seems to me like Anaheim (while probably the class of the division) isn't really so great either. Of course, Billy Beane could always pull some miracle trades, but if Harden's really hurt, I can't see it being enough. And consider this:

By my extremely rough count, if the Mariners end up winning 75% of Felix's starts and 50% of the rest of the rotation's starts, that'll put them at 89 wins. I think it is highly likely that 89 wins takes the division easily. In fact, I think 86 could do it. Of course, this team is one injury to Felix or Ichiro (or maybe a couple of other guys) away from being completely hopeless, so I won't feel safe at any point this season. Not even if we were to stay in first place the whole time, which obviously we won't (barring total collapse from every other team in the division).

But in the spirit of this, I think it'll be a fun couple of stats to keep track of every so often:

FW%, the percentage of starts made by Felix that the Mariners win...

and

RW%, the percentage of starts made by anyone else that the Mariners win.

I'll probably post them somewhere in the neighborhood of every two weeks, starting once we lose a game that Felix starts. It should be a nice barometer of how the playoff hopes of the Mariners are developing, and it should give you guys a good opportunity to make fun of me for how pathetic the 2-5 starters in our rotation are.

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4 Comments:

  • adsf

    By Blogger Kabir, at 11:37 AM  

  • Congratulations Kabir, you successfully pushed the keyboard with your hand!

    For the record, I said something remarkably similar back in like November. I said 87 wins takes the division. I notice, Jesse, that you chose 89 and 86 as your specific numbers. Am I to infer that you chose those numbers out of thin air, and are not, in fact, trying to cover your plagiaristic tracks by picking numbers close, but not that close, to 87? You douchebag.

    Also, I think RW should be SBW, for Shit Bag Wins.

    By Blogger Jeff, at 11:44 AM  

  • Hmm, I didn't really add anything up there.

    I do think the Mariners have an excellent chance to rise above the fray in some sort of de facto manner. But I would also point out that Oakland always digs themselves a hole early on, before going totally nuts in July and August, and also that Texas has a lot of sleeper potential. But neither of those teams should separate themselves too much, and neither has anyone even close to Felix's peak performance. If this is indeed his coronation, I think he might be enough to elevate you guys. Look some of the p.o.s. Twins teams that Johan has led into the playoffs.

    By Blogger Jeff, at 11:48 AM  

  • 89 was derived by 3/4 of Felix's starts won + 1/2 of everyone else's, rounded down (assuming Felix doesn't miss any, which is of course a huge assumption). 86 was derived by being a few less than that--like I said, very rough. Anyway, I remember reading your column, so maybe it wielded some subconscious power over me. Both the Angels and As looked better to me then than they do now, so at the time I was not compelled to stand up for the Mariners chances at the time.

    Anyway, yeah, Oakland tends to have a lot up their sleeve, but I don't see the potential on the current roster. Beane always pulls something out of a hat mid-season, and there are people who may yet put it together. But I don't like that team. And while I think Lackey is awesome, the rest of the Angels rotation is actually pretty mediocre. We'll see I guess.

    Every year people say Texas is better and I just don't see it. Maybe it's because I don't think Young or Texeira are really all that good. Again, we'll see. I just cannot look at Texas and see legit sleeper potential.

    Plus Adam Jones is destroying the ball in AAA and if Vidro sucks as bad as I think he will, we can shift Ibanez to DH and put Jones in left, which would give us an awesome OF defense (to go with our pretty sweet IF defense already). If Lopez develops at all and Beltre hits like post 6/1/2006 Beltre (and I'm cautiously optimistic he will), then we could rack up quite a few of those SBWs.

    Anyway, I think the division is wide open. And I agree that if this really is Felix's coming out year, things might look pretty good. Or not.

    By Blogger Jesse, at 12:51 PM  

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