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Friday, January 27, 2006

Celtics Trade    

Breaking down the Celts' semi-blockbuster, expanded far beyond the Blount-for-Kandi trade that confused me:

On-Court Product

This will probably help the Celtics, if only because it clears up so many bench spots.  Ricky/Blount for Wally/Kandi is a wash, but Marcus Banks and Justin Reed got spun off for a D-league center project and a #1 pick.  Taking guys who offered the team little, and turning them into future assets, was a good move.

The starting five now looks like Delonte West, Wally Szcerbiak, Paul Pierce, Raef LaFrentz, and Kendrick Perkins.  Not very good.  LaFrentz will be the starter until Al Jefferson plays up to Doc Rivers' standards, which change nightly because Doc has no idea what he's doing.

Ricky vs. Wally
I like neither of them, particularly.  Wally is overpaid, and will be through 2009.  He doesn't play anything even close to D; he's only good on O because it's so far from D in the alphabet.  And from all accounts I've heard, he's kind of a me-first dick, and a black hole.  But he's also a quality #2 scoring option next to Pierce.  And we know there's no chance he'll explode, like the ticking timebomb that is Ricky Davis.  Getting a guy like Wally for Ricky is probably the peak of Ricky's trade value, so I like that we moved him before he blew up.

Financials
Szcerbiak and Olowokandi are both ridiculously overpaid.  But according to the Globe, the Celts are saving $5 million on the deal, despite taking on Wally's $12 million per season through '08-09.  Kandi's $6 million comes off the books this summer, which is nice, but will ultimately go straight into the pockets of Delonte West, Kendrick Perkins, Al Jefferson and company, not free agents.  What we're left with is overpaying for Wally, as opposed to overpaying for Blount, who sucks and hates Asians.  So we win that one, though it's not a salary dump exactly.

Draft Picks
The C's get an option for a #1 from Minnesota, likely in 2008.  By then, the Wolves will have been forced to trade KG, so the pick could be a gold mine.  This insures that regardless of the outcome, we have something to look forward to.  The Celts sent two second-rounders to Minnesota, which will mean exactly nothing, though Ainge has been msterful with second-rounders thus far.

Effect On Doc Rivers
It gives him a lot less to be confused about when dealing with substitutions (10 talented players is less than 12), doesn't it?  But it won't change the fact that he's completely fucking incompetent.  Just throwing that out there.  I hope to God he gets fired, so these poor bastards can learn something from their coach.  Is it any surprise that the only guys who are actually developing (West and Greene) play Doc's old position?  Gee whiz.  Maybe we need to hire head coaches for the other four positions; then Jefferson and Perkins could start growing up instead of languishing in atrophy.

Minnesota
They have improved themselves.  I think Blount will play well for them; he's that kind of guy.  Ricky will obviously play well.  Banks will contribute; their PG situation is a disaster.  But they've also downgraded their offense, since Ricky is a feast-or-famine kind of guy.  I doubt this will help them win a playoff spot, but I do think they're better.

Diagnosis

Good trade.  Win-win for both teams.  At worst the C's now have another 20 ppg scorer, some cash to pay for West and Jefferson's raises, and a future #1 pick.  Danny Ainge did well.

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