Football

Thoughts on the four weekend games:

1. Skins/Bucs
Excellent game, if offensively challenged.  Redskins D came up huuuuuuge.  Chris Simms played pretty well, except for the final drive (INT on first play of drive).  Cadillac Williams didn't, and understandably so.

2. Pats/Jags
Pats are legit, Jags aren't.  Pats are not invincible, though.  They're still vulnerable.

3. Panthers/Giants
I was a little surprised about how awful the Giants played.  They coasted into the playoffs, but that was just a sickening performance, especially from a home team with a solid offensive attack.  That said, the Panthers have been a mixed bag all year, so you can't exactly expect them to play as well as they did.  And DeShaun Foster is locking himself up as a 2nd-round fantasy back playing very well without regard to his statistics, because helping the team win is his #1 priority.  (The first rule of Postgame Spread IS...)

4. Bengals/Steelers
Devastating.  Bad enough that they lose, but to then see Carson Palmer tear two ligaments... immediately after lighting up the Steelers D for a 60-yard pass play, no less.  Elation, followed by a gigantic nutpunch.  Poor Cincinnati.  But honestly, even though you can't blame them for quitting a little bit, they showed an awful lot of immaturity in how they handled themselves after the injury (arguing amongst themselves, lack of confidence, penalties, etc), and Marvin Lewis deserves some blame for how the team was prepared.  But it can be chalked up as growing pains.  Still a great season.  The Steelers played fine, and that end-around/lateral/bomb play to Cedrick Wilson was pretty awesome, but other than that there's not a lot to say.  I hope they enjoy the shellacking they have in store.

Thoughts on this week's games:

1. Seahawks/Redskins
I think the Redskins win this.  It's a mismatch... I think tough, rough D will give Alexander and Hasselbeck fits.  A couple well-placed big plays from Portis and Moss could be enough to do it.  But Seattle will be real, real noisy.  I wouldn't be shocked by any outcome, but I think the Seahawks are ripe.

2. Panthers/Bears
Seriously, is anyone gonna watch this?  I'd rather predict the final score (4-2!) than the winner.  Normally I'd lean towards Carolina, especially with Chicago's shaky QB situation, but between home field, the bye week, and the prospect of two road wild-cards winning, I'm saying Chicago.

3. Colts/Steelers
No contest here.  The Steelers aren't good enough.  This would be a much bigger nightmare than losing to the Pats.

4. Broncos/Pats
Huge, huge game, bigger than any since the Colts/Pats AFC title game two years ago.  These teams are as evenly matched as can be.  The Pats have momentum, but Mile High is the biggest home-field advantage in professional sports.  Pats O vs. Denver D is a slight edge to Pats, but their injured secondary might be recovered.  Pats D vs. Denver O is an edge to the Broncos; Pats' run defense has been huge of late, but if the Broncos do one thing well it's running the ball.  Special teams, coaching, and intangibles go to Pats, but the Broncos' run game and home-field neutralize any perceived advantage for New England.

I think the Pats will put the game in Jake Plummer's hands, one way or the other.  If the Broncos are in a position where Plummer needs to lead them back, start forcing balls into traffic etc., the game will be over.  But they can nip that in the bud pretty easily by establishing a lead early, as they did back in October.  I can't wait for this.