[Edit 1/31 10 AM: removed conditionals relating to Gonzalez]
I know, bo-ring, but it's worth revisiting, since I don't think I've covered the lineup since Jeremy Reed was an option in center field.
Batting Order
CF Coco Crisp
2B Mark Loretta
DH David Ortiz
LF Manny Ramirez
RF Trot Nixon
3B Mike Lowell
CA Jason Varitek
1B Kevin Youkilis
SS Alex Gonzalez
This lineup will be as good as usual. Crisp may be less than Damon, but Loretta is way, way more than Renteria was. So while we don't have a one-man wrecking crew atop the lineup, at least we have a two-man wrecking crew. Might be better that way anyhow.
I'm also starting to come around on Lowell. He might be cooked, but if not then there's no better place for him to regain his confidence than Fenway. The Monstah can be somewhat forgiving when it comes to those lazy flies to left. I bet he'll hit somewhere between 15-20 HR, ultimately just replacing either Billy Mueller or Kevin Millar, but he'll have every opportunity to do more.
Bench
1B J.T. Snow
UT Alex Cora / Willie Harris / Tony Graffanino (Graffanino's a goner though)
OF Dustan Mohr
OF Adam Stern / Harris
CA Josh Bard / John Flaherty
The weak spot. Injuries at any position besides 2B/SS would spell certain doom for the lineup. This is where, ohhhh I dunno, Andy Goddamn Marte might have come in handy. But as role players they're decent. I'd like to see a pinch-hitting specialist in there at some point, though. Mohr isn't good enough, Stern's not ready, and the infielders are defense-only. That, actually, would be an interesting way for Graffanino to stick around... say what you (read: I) will about Gaffe-a-nino as a starter, but he would be the perfect utility infielder. He's even got a fan cult, just like any good Boston utility guy. But Cora will probably outplay him.
Rotation
Schilling
Beckett
Wells
Wakefield
Clement
I give the #5 to Clement over Arroyo, only because I think they'll pitch him until his trade value rises. Arroyo may go anyway, but who knows. Much as I hate to see the Sox give Paps mere bullpen innings again, Saturn Balls and Clement both have shown little (if any) aptitude as relievers. So they'll tell Clement he's pitching for his new employers, and that he should press to impress.
Bullpen
Papelbon
Arroyo / Van Buren (if trade happens)
Tavarez
Foulke
Seanez
Riske
Timlin
A real strength. Short of Papelbon's eventual ascension to the rotation, the part of the season I await the most. The Red Sox have never, ever had a bullpen this deep. I mean, pending an Arroyo/Clement trade, Keith Foulke is their worst reliever. Unreal. There's plenty of room for disaster (Foulke is a mess, Timlin/Seanez are old, Tavarez is a surprise bag, injuries, and so forth) but even so, there are dangerous, capable arms in Pawtucket ready to step in at a moment's notice. We may see Craig Hansen closing games by August, no matter how well Foulke recovers. Who knows. What I do know is that they have something like 10 arms to choose from (again, pending trades). The one weakness on paper is they're a little slanted towards short relief. Paps is the only guy in that pen I'd want to pitch more than an inning, including Saturn Balls, who has a tendency to overthrow as a reliever. I can't wait to see how this bullpen shakes itself out.
Prognosis
I'm sticking by my previous predictions. They will win the division. If Schilling makes 30 starts, this is a 100-win team.
I know, bo-ring, but it's worth revisiting, since I don't think I've covered the lineup since Jeremy Reed was an option in center field.
Batting Order
CF Coco Crisp
2B Mark Loretta
DH David Ortiz
LF Manny Ramirez
RF Trot Nixon
3B Mike Lowell
CA Jason Varitek
1B Kevin Youkilis
SS Alex Gonzalez
This lineup will be as good as usual. Crisp may be less than Damon, but Loretta is way, way more than Renteria was. So while we don't have a one-man wrecking crew atop the lineup, at least we have a two-man wrecking crew. Might be better that way anyhow.
I'm also starting to come around on Lowell. He might be cooked, but if not then there's no better place for him to regain his confidence than Fenway. The Monstah can be somewhat forgiving when it comes to those lazy flies to left. I bet he'll hit somewhere between 15-20 HR, ultimately just replacing either Billy Mueller or Kevin Millar, but he'll have every opportunity to do more.
Bench
1B J.T. Snow
UT Alex Cora / Willie Harris / Tony Graffanino (Graffanino's a goner though)
OF Dustan Mohr
OF Adam Stern / Harris
CA Josh Bard / John Flaherty
The weak spot. Injuries at any position besides 2B/SS would spell certain doom for the lineup. This is where, ohhhh I dunno, Andy Goddamn Marte might have come in handy. But as role players they're decent. I'd like to see a pinch-hitting specialist in there at some point, though. Mohr isn't good enough, Stern's not ready, and the infielders are defense-only. That, actually, would be an interesting way for Graffanino to stick around... say what you (read: I) will about Gaffe-a-nino as a starter, but he would be the perfect utility infielder. He's even got a fan cult, just like any good Boston utility guy. But Cora will probably outplay him.
Rotation
Schilling
Beckett
Wells
Wakefield
Clement
I give the #5 to Clement over Arroyo, only because I think they'll pitch him until his trade value rises. Arroyo may go anyway, but who knows. Much as I hate to see the Sox give Paps mere bullpen innings again, Saturn Balls and Clement both have shown little (if any) aptitude as relievers. So they'll tell Clement he's pitching for his new employers, and that he should press to impress.
Bullpen
Papelbon
Arroyo / Van Buren (if trade happens)
Tavarez
Foulke
Seanez
Riske
Timlin
A real strength. Short of Papelbon's eventual ascension to the rotation, the part of the season I await the most. The Red Sox have never, ever had a bullpen this deep. I mean, pending an Arroyo/Clement trade, Keith Foulke is their worst reliever. Unreal. There's plenty of room for disaster (Foulke is a mess, Timlin/Seanez are old, Tavarez is a surprise bag, injuries, and so forth) but even so, there are dangerous, capable arms in Pawtucket ready to step in at a moment's notice. We may see Craig Hansen closing games by August, no matter how well Foulke recovers. Who knows. What I do know is that they have something like 10 arms to choose from (again, pending trades). The one weakness on paper is they're a little slanted towards short relief. Paps is the only guy in that pen I'd want to pitch more than an inning, including Saturn Balls, who has a tendency to overthrow as a reliever. I can't wait to see how this bullpen shakes itself out.
Prognosis
I'm sticking by my previous predictions. They will win the division. If Schilling makes 30 starts, this is a 100-win team.
posted by Jeff at
5:40 PM
2 Comments:
Hot Dog! We have a wiener.
By
Jeff, at 9:52 AM
One other bit of news... Sean McAdam suggested in a chat that the Sox might have a secret weapon at closer, should Keith Foulke struggle: Jon Papelbon. Doing so as a contingency would likely require that Papelbon spend the spring as a reliever, which raises difficulties if they need him in the rotation again later. So if there's anything to this idea of McAdam's, one of two scenarios would play out:
* Foulke falters
* Paps takes over as 2006 closer
* Paps enters rotation in 2007 a year wiser
OR
* Foulke succeeds
* Paps returns to Pawtucket to get a few starts under his belt, get his rhythm back
* Clemmoyo gets traded, Paps returns to Boston as a starter
Not thrilled about any of this, but it would actually explain what we're seeing.
By
Jeff, at 6:02 PM
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